By prof. Busisiwe Mavuso
Johannesburg, 23 July 2026 – The fourth BLSA Reform Tracker Quarterly Review, covering April to June 2026, shows South Africa’s overall reform completion index fell to 71.5 from 71.7 in the previous quarter, though it is still 26% above the March 2024 baseline.
Quarter-on-quarter momentum turned negative for the first time since tracking began, with declines narrowly outnumbering advances for the first time in the Tracker’s history.
The BLSA Reform Tracker, developed and managed by research consultancy Krutham for Business Leadership South Africa (BLSA), monitors 247 reform deliverables across economic, criminal justice and governance categories. Of these, 172 could be compared like-for-like with the previous quarter; of those, 33 changed score: 13 advanced and 20 declined.
“This quarter is the first time we’ve seen more reforms lose ground than gain it,” says BLSA CEO Busisiwe Mavuso. Referring to the setback in electricity reforms, Mavuso notes that apart from issues related to Eskom unbundling, numerous problems are showing up through the Tracker.
Electricity
The electricity reform area eased from 69.1 to 67.5 (-2.2%) this quarter, even as Eskom itself continues to stabilise: the utility now forecasts no load shedding this winter, with surpluses of more than 5GW, owing to improved plant reliability and reduced demand. However, aggressive curtailment of renewable IPPs has followed, with a R2bn backlog in curtailment compensation payments and some IPPs facing revenue shortfalls of around 9%.
Virtual wheeling protocols recorded one of the quarter’s steepest declines, down 18.75 points (100 to 81.25), after the finalisation of trading rules missed its April deadline, keeping private electricity traders on the sidelines. Municipal debt to Eskom breached R114bn, with distribution agency agreements offered as a stop-gap rather than a structural fix, and transmission rollout missed its 2025/26 target (270.8km against a target of 423km). The South African Wholesale Electricity Market (Sawem) and the Independent Transmission System Operator (ITSO) both face tight, at-risk timelines heading into Q3.
Freight logistics
Freight logistics eased slightly, down 0.5% to 68.8, although Volume 4 of the Network Statement was published on 3 July, so that is excluded from this quarter’s scores. Volume 4 extends formal access-seeker status to cargo owners for the first time, not only licensed operators, among other things.
Transnet’s Rail Infrastructure Manager (TRIM) signed rail access agreements with all 11 newly qualified private train operating companies, moving the network from a single operator to 12 and projecting 24Mt of additional freight volumes a year. The Durban Container Terminal Pier 2 concession also reached financial close.
Broader bankability concerns kept the reform area’s overall score in decline, however: the National Rail Bill was not tabled during the quarter, and rolling stock constraints remain a concern, although the release of the rolling stock leasing company (LeaseCo) RFP on 22 June is a positive step.
The tracker’s universe also grew this quarter: the Synthetic Financial Centre, endorsed in the February Budget to let investment institutions manage foreign-currency funds from within South Africa’s borders, joined the tracker with an opening score of 31.25. A new Transport reform area also entered the tracker via the Road Accident Fund reform.
On the positive side, visa reforms advanced from 83.4 to 86.1 (+3.3%), driven by the Electronic Travel Authorisation system, which posted the quarter’s single largest individual deliverable gain (65.8 to 90.75). Other infrastructure improved from 75.0 to 80.0 (+6.7%) on progress in Deeds Office digitalisation.
Governance
Governance was the only pillar to advance this quarter, rising from 54.4 to 55.1. The Public Service Amendment Act, enacted on 1 April 2026 alongside the Public Administration Management Amendment Act, devolves administrative powers from executive authorities to heads of department, including the authority to appoint or dismiss departmental staff. Its deliverable score rose from 62.5 to 75 (+20%) — the quarter’s single largest gain within governance.
The Department of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (COGTA) also gazetted the draft revised White Paper on Local Government in May for public comment, the first major rewrite since 1998. The final policy is expected in July or August.
Criminal justice
Criminal justice held broadly flat, easing from 84.8 to 84.2 as post-FATF gains consolidated. The Extradition Bill, introduced to Parliament on 19 May to replace the outdated 1962 Extradition Act, advanced from 62.5 to 65. The draft Protected Disclosures Bill remains out for comment, but with no score change yet recorded while the department reviews submissions ahead of tabling.
Conclusion
BLSA is deeply concerned that reforms in energy and transport & logistics, sector that are extremely important to building an efficient economy, are hitting obstacles.
While Transnet has been pushing ahead impressively with some reforms, it still designs and runs the very processes meant to open its network to competition, and operators are locking in commercial terms against tariffs set by Transnet itself, before the Transport Economic Regulator (TER) is operational.
The establishment of an Independent Transmission System Operator, without which a competitive market becomes impossible, is experiencing concerning delays. Equally concerning is the mounting debt to IPPs to compensate for curtailment.
BLSA firmly believes that implementing reforms successfully is crucial. Efficiently functioning energy and transport & logistics markets, as well as water systems and municipalities that can deliver services, will provide a strong foundation from which the economy will be able to grow at meaningful rates. That is what will enable the country to be in a much better position to address the many urgent areas of need, particularly the high unemployment rate.
More details on these and other reforms are published in the BLSA Reform Tracker Quarterly Review, April-June 2026, available at BLSA Reform Tracker.
- Click here to read the BLSA-Reform-Tracker-Quarterly-Review_March_June2026.pdf
- Click here to access the presentation
