By Prof. Busisiwe Mavuso
It is very good news that Ebrahim Rasool is to be our next ambassador to the United States. South Africa’s relationship with the US is important and in need of repair. The Trump presidency is set to change how the US engages with the rest of the world with far more emphasis on bilateralism and we need to be ready for it.
The two countries’ relationship has been strained over the last two years as some of our actions have been perceived by our US counterparts as threatening their foreign security interests.. Many in Washington have been angered by our engagements with Russia and China, as well as our position on the Israel/Palestine conflict. That has put our trading relationship at risk, despite the US being arguably our most important trading partner. While the US is our second largest trading partner after China, the trade balance is in our favour and includes a high proportion of manufactured goods.
Vehicles and machinery form a large part of our export basket alongside foodstuffs and minerals. In contrast, our trade with China is characterised by high volumes of raw material exports and an even higher volume of manufactured goods imports. The US relationship supports deep value chains in our economy and far more jobs as a result.
I was pleased to join several business leaders for dinner with Rasool last week as he prepares for the task. I was taken aback by how well he came across as someone who understands the mission. He has walked the streets of Washington before, having served as ambassador in the first Zuma administration while Barack Obama was president. He has a strong network in Washington as a result. He has been mandated by President Cyril Ramaphosa to reset the relationship, this time as a representative of the Government of National Unity.
Few are under any illusion that the Trump approach to foreign relations will be far more transactional as he seeks to deliver on his “America first” policy focus. The trade relationship is also important for the US, particularly since the Russia/Ukraine conflict, which has resulted in greater US dependency on South Africa for raw materials like platinum group metals and chrome. It will take considerable diplomatic skill to find the right balance of interests to ensure that SA continues to benefit from the relationship the way it now does. Rasool gives me great confidence that he will be able to navigate the path.
South Africa will be playing an important role in global geopolitics, taking over as chair of the G20 next month, with the US due to take over next December. It is therefore an important time for the relationship on the global stage, while bilateral issues, including the future of our trading relationship, will be far more direct between the two sides.
Driven by concerns over US national security and foreign policy interests, the US House of Representatives passed a bill in March requiring a complete review of the US and South Africa relationship. That bill must still be passed by the Senate, but with the Republicans set to control both houses, the party’s views will be critical to the future of the relationship.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act, which supports African countries’ access to US markets for certain kinds of goods, is set to expire next September and Trump has not yet provided any indication on whether he intends to renew it and continue to include South Africa among the nations that benefit from it. Rasool is under no illusions that we face a pivotal moment in the relationship. His focus is very much on South Africa’s trade relationship and the jobs that it supports.
Organised business is 100% behind the ambassador as he takes on the role. This is a man with a plan who brings vast experience to the task. His willingness to engage with stakeholders, including business, is impressive. I look forward to working with him, alongside all South Africans, to ensure he is successful in his mission.
***
I was pleased to see the signing of the “Durban Declaration” last week between stakeholders to fight against construction mafias that are causing such serious damage to our economy. I’ve previously written about the damage these extortionists are doing to our economy, holding back investment and actively sabotaging critical infrastructure including our logistics system. The declaration has been driven by Public Works and Infrastructure minister Dean Macpherson, drawing together ministers from police and finance, alongside the Construction Industry Development Board, to work together to bring an end to criminal disruption at construction sites.
This has great potential to tackle one of the most damaging elements within the wider organised crime juggernaut that threatens our economy. South Africa cannot become the construction site that many want to see while organised criminals have a choke hold on any new construction. I applaud the minister for the initiative and look forward to seeing the results.
