29 May 2024 is an important day in the history of South Africa’s democracy.
To gauge the feelings of South Africans, eNCA took to the streets and conducted interviews with 3022 households that are representative of the wider society. Assisted by Mark Data (Pty) Ltd the interviews were conducted face-to-face and on a one-on-one basis.
Those interviewed ranged from city dwellers to rural citizens. Furthermore, the interviews were conducted in the person’s language of choice.
Information from 30 percent of those surveyed was double checked to improve the quality of the date. The margin of error was a respectable 1.8 percent.
eNCA is in the process of concluding another election poll. The results will be released a few days before the polls, on the 19th of May 2024. For more election news, analysis, and in-depth coverage, tune into eNCA, DStv Channel 403.
The participants were asked a little over 40 questions in the initial survey and these are some of the highlights from the poll.
WHY IS THE ANC LOSING SUPPORT?
CORRUPTION 39%
UNEMPLOYMENT 28%
LOADSHEDDING 19%
POVERTY 7%
WATER CUT-OFFS 6%
WHY THE INCREASE IN POVERTY AND INEQUALITY?
GOVERNMENT DOES NOT CARE 49%
THE GREED OF THE BLACK ELITE 48%
ANC POLICIES 35%
WHITES STILL BENEFIT FROM APARTHEID 33%
THE ANC IS DOING ITS BEST 14%.
WHY IS THE DA GOVERNING THE WESTERN CAPE SUCCESSFULLY?
WHITES AND COLOUREDS SUPPORT THE DA: 37%
DA LEADERS ARE WELL EDUCATED: 34%
THE DA IS HARD WORKING AND NOT CORRUPT: 35%
THE DA BENEFITS FROM APARTHEID: 30%
THE DA DOES NOT GOVERN THE WESTERN CAPE WELL: 20%.
IF THE ANC LOSES THE 2024 ELECTIONS…
THEY WILL FIND A WAY TO STAY IN POWER: 77%
THEY WILL GIVE UP POWER: 21%.
DISAPPOINTMENT LEVELS WITH POLITICS
DISAPPOINTED: 83%
NOT DISAPPOINTED: 16%.
PARTY CHOICE: KWAZULU NATAL
MK 35,6%
IFP 20,9%
DA 13,6%
ANC 13,1%
EFF 10,6%
OTHERS 6,2%.
PARTY CHOICE: WESTERN CAPE
DA 47,1%
ANC 32,1%
EFF 12,6%
OTHER 8,3%.
PARTY CHOICE: GAUTENG
ANC 45,6%
DA 20,2%
EFF 15,2%
MK 7,7%
ACTION SA 2,4%
IFP 1,1%
OTHER 7,8%.
PARTY CHOICE: NORTHERN CAPE
DA 46,3%
ANC 39,5%
EFF 6,3%
OTHERS: 8,0%.
PARTY CHOICE: FREE STATE
ANC 42,3%
DA 25,9%
EFF 19,2%
AIC 3,7%
COPE 3,7%
FF PLUS 2,8%
ACTION SA 1,9%
OTHERS 2,8%.
PARTY CHOICE: EASTERN CAPE
ANC 55,0%
DA 18,6%
EFF 14,8%
COPE 1,9%
ATRM 1,5%
UDM 1,1%
MK 0,9%
OTHERS 6,2%.
PARTY CHOICE: LIMPOPO
ANC 68,2%
EFF 16,3%
DA 7,9%
OTHER 4,2%.
PARTY CHOICE: MPUMALANGA
ANC 41,6%
MK 22.6%
EFF 17,5%
DA 15,1%
OTHER 3,2%.
PARTY CHOICE: NORTH WEST
ANC 54,3%
EFF 19,7%
DA 18,6%
MK 0.7%
OTHERS 6,7%.
WHY IS SERVICE DELIVERY SO POOR?
INCOMPETENT OFFICIALS 38%
CORRUPT POLITICIANS 20%
ANC INCOMPETENCE 19%
ANC POLICIES ARE WRONG 12%
ANC DOES ITS BEST 11%.
WHAT WILL DISAPPOINTED 2019 RAMAPHOSA SUPPORTERS DO?
VOTE ANC 38%
VOTE FOR ANOTHER PARTY 29%
NOT VOTE 16%
VOTE EFF 11%.
HOW IS THE ANC PERFORMING IN GOVERNMENT?
WORSE THAN EXPECTED 57%
BETTER THAN EXPECTED 41%.
PERCENTAGE POLL
I will certainly vote 49,8%
I will probably vote: 17,3%
I will vote if I find time: 10,9%
It depends how I feel on the day: 9%.
PARTY CHOICE: NATIONAL
ANC 41,4%
DA 20.0%
EFF 15,5%
MK 10,9%
IFP 4,3%
ACTION SA 1,4%
COPE 1,1%
AIC 0,7%
FF+ 0,6%
ACDP 0,5%
ATM 0,4%
GOOD 0,4%
APC 0,3%
PA 0,3%
MF 0,3%
PAC 0,2%
UDM 0,2%
DLC 0,2%
AL JAMAAH 0,2%
OTHERS 1,0%.
WHO SHOULD FORM THE NEW GOVERNMENT?
COMPLETELY NEW GOVERNMENT 57%
ANC 26%
ANC AND DA 8%
ANC AND EFF 5%.
FAVOURABLE VOTERS’ IMPRESSION
THABO MBEKI (ANC) 53%
CYRIL RAMAPHOSA (ANC) 41%
JACOB ZUMA (MK) 41%
JULIUS MALEMA (EFF) 37%
FIKILE MBALULA (ANC) 33%
MMUSI MAIMANE (BOSA) 30%
HELEN ZILLE (DA) 27%
PAUL MASHATILE (ANC) 26%
GWEDE MANTASHE (ANC) 23%
HERMAN MASHABA (ASA) 23%
JOHN STEENHUISEN (DA) 22%
FLOYD SHIVAMBU (EFF) 20%
PIETER GROENEWALD (FF PLUS) 17%
VELENKOSINI HLABISA (IFP) 14%
GAYTON MCKENZIE (PA) 12%.
SUPPORTERS MOST CONFIDENT IN LEADERSHIP
RAMAPHOSA (ANC) 66%
STEENHUISEN (DA) 58%
MALEMA (EFF) 52%
ZUMA (MK) 36%
HLABISA (IFP) 25%.
SUPPORTERS LACKING CONFIDENCE IN LEADERSHIP
HLABISA (IFP) 39%
ZUMA (MK) 35%
MALEMA (EFF) 25%
STEENHUISEN (DA) 18%
RAMAPHOSA (ANC) 10%.
SHOULD BUSINESSES RATHER THAN THE STATE-RUN STATE-OWNED ENTITIES?
YES 50%
NO 46%.
SUPPORTERS VOTING FOR PARTY PRINCIPLES
DA 40%
ANC 36%
EFF 36%
MK 27%
IFP 17%.
PARTY SUPPORTERS SUPPORTING BECAUSE THERE IS NO ONE ELSE TO VOTE
IFP 41%
MK 35%
EFF 29%
ANC 20%
DA 20%.
PARTY SUPPORTERS WHO MAY VOTE FOR SOMEONE ELSE
IFP 12%
EFF 11%
MK 11%
DA 9%
ANC 6%.
SUPPORTERS WHO ARE NEW VOTERS IN 2024
AVERAGE: 7%
EFF 11%
MK 11%
ANC 7%
DA 5%
IFP 5%.
SHOULD THE SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENT BE ELECTED DIRECTLY?
YES 59%
NO 37%.
A COALITION NATIONAL GOVERNMENT
WOULD NOT WORK WELL 52%
WOULD WORK WELL 47%.
DISAPPOINTMENT LEVELS WITH POLITICS
DISAPPOINTED 83%
NOT DISAPPOINTED 16%.
HOW INTERESTED ARE VOTERS IN POLITICS?
LESS INTERESTED THAN BEFORE 36%
VERY INTERESTED 29%
NOT INTERESTED 26%
MORE INTERESTED THAN BEFORE 7%.
A COALITION NATIONAL GOVERNMENT
WOULD NOT WORK WELL 52%
WOULD WORK WELL 47%.
DO YOU TRUST THE INDEPENDENT ELECTORAL COMMISSION?
YES 58%
NO 37%.
PERCENTAGE POLL
I will certainly vote 49,8%
I will probably vote: 17,3%
I will vote if I find time: 10,9%
It depends how I feel on the day: 9%.
THE FUTURE
WILL BE BETTER 24%
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS NOW 38%
WILL BE WORSE 35%.
PARTY SUPPORTERS SUPPORTING BECAUSE THERE IS NO ONE ELSE TO VOTE FOR
IFP: 41%
MK: 35%
EFF: 29%
ANC: 20%
DA: 20%.
HOW INTERESTED ARE VOTERS IN POLITICS?
LESS INTERESTED THAN BEFORE: 36%
VERY INTERESTED: 29%
NOT INTERESTED: 26%
MORE INTERESTED THAN BEFORE: 7%.
2019 SUPPORTERS NOT VOTING IN 2024
(AVERAGE 14%)
DA: 19%
EFF: 16%
IFP: 12%
ANC: 10%
MK: 10%.
2024 SUPPORTERS SWITCHING THEIR VOTE
(AVERAGE 27%)
MK: 68%
IFP: 52%
EFF: 47%
DA: 21%
ANC: 8%.
VOTERS’ LIKELINESS TO VOTE
I will certainly vote: 49,8%
I will probably vote: 17,3%
I will vote if I find time: 10,9%
It depends how I feel on the day: 9%.
VOTERS’ LIKELINESS TO VOTE OVERALL (Incl. those who will not vote)
CERTAIN TO VOTE: 57%
POSSIBLY: 39%
WILL NOT VOTE: 3%.
VOTER SENTIMENT
SOUTH AFRICA NEEDS A NEW GOVERNMENT: 53%
SOUTH AFRICA MUST RETURN TO THE SPIRIT OF 1994: 49%
SOUTH AFRICA IS GETTING BETTER: 16%
THE GOVERNMENT IS DOING ITS BEST: 12%.
BLACK ECONOMIC EMPOWERMENT
KEEP BEE IN THE INTEREST OF FAIRNESS: 47%
RELAX BEE TO ENTICE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: 43%
UNSURE: 9%.
